The Israeli government has issued a highly significant advisory warning of high-profile terror strikes in India.

The advisory recommends that Israelis refrain from visiting places known to be frequented by westerners and Israelis and places without visible armed security, and also urges Israelis to avoid visiting the state of Jammu and Kashmir.

The warning has been issued by the Israeli Counter Terrorism Bureau (CTB), which is part of the National Security Council.

The CTB has four levels of threat perception. The lowest signifies a Continuous Potential Threat or Opportunity for a terror strike. The next highest is the Basic Concrete Threat under which the CTB recommends that Israeli citizens refrain from visiting the country or region in question. The second highest is the High Concrete Threat under which the CTB recommends for Israeli citizens to avoid visiting the designated region or country and leave as soon as possible if already present.

The Very High Concrete Threat, issued in this instance, is above all of the above and is issued by the CTB to urge all Israeli citizens to leave the host country ‘immediately’.

According to sources, the threat perception was arrived at by the CTB after communication was intercepted that indicated an imminent terror strike. But since the Israelis have not been able to identify the specific group planning the strike or the possible targets in question, the information has been revealed and the threat perception disclosed to try preempt any such strike.

Interestingly, the announcement of the threat perception also comes on Friday, when the Jewish holiday Rosh Hashanah begins at sunset and continues till Sunday night.

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The Indian Army has denied any lapses or wrong-doing on the part of Indian peacekeepers who are part of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) after allegations were raised last week by the Israeli ambassador to the United Nations (UN), Gabriela Shalev. In a letter to UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon, she complained of inaction on the part of the Indian peacekeepers in preventing 15 Lebanese from illegally crossing into Israel and waving Hizbullah flags.

The Jerusalem Post quoted the letter as saying, “[The demonstrators] stood opposite the UNIFIL force, [which did nothing,] and worse than that, according to statements made by the organizers of the demonstration, they even cooperated with them.”

According to sources, the incident relates to post 4-31 in the Kafr Shouba Hills at the Blue Line between Israel and Lebanon near Baathaiil Lake. On June 8 this year, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) had constructed a Tank Firing Position in the vicinity of the post, following which the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) reciprocated and constructed a similar position of their own on June 16.

The Indian peacekeepers belonging to UNIFIL then mediated and got both sides to vacate those positions. But on June 17 at 1100 hours local time, some 30 civilians crossed the Blue Line from Lebanon, five of whom planted the Lebanese and Hizbullah flags at the Israeli position.

The Indian contingent, collectively known as INDBATT, then diffused the situation through mediation and got the demonstrators to withdraw. The Indian Army asserts that the actions of the Indian peacekeepers was in conformity with UNIFIL Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs). The Indian contribution to UNIFIL consists of three units amounting to a brigade.

Arrow Weapon System - Image courtesy Israel Aerospace Industries

The Arrow Weapon System has managed to complete this morning (April 7, 2009) another successful test. This is the 17th experiment of Arrow intercept and the 11th examined, as they were developed as part of the improvement program, ASIP, the collaboration between Israel and United States.

The target missile visualized the future threat in several extremely challenging characteristics.

The target trajectory visualized an operational scenario and all of the weapon’s system assembles performed in their operational form.

After the launch of the target the weapon system has entered the “play” mode and started its operation. The fire control radar (FCR) acquired the target and sent its data to the battle management command and control (BMC). A defense plan was issued and a mission command was sent to the launcher. The interceptor was launched towards its target with its improved functions.

The interceptor has performed successfully and eliminated the target.

Representatives from the Israeli missile defense organization (IMOD) cooperating with the US missile defense agency (MDA) both took part in the Arrow program.

The success of this project is not only an enormous accomplishment but an important milestone in developing and improving the operational abilities and gives response to the ballistic missiles threat that is only increasing in the region.

The Minister of Defense, Mr. Ehud Barak witnessed the launching from an IDF helicopter when he was on his way back from a reconnaissance on the Gaza division.

The minister of defense got updated with the launching results. The minister mentioned: “the future protecting system is an important project for Israel. The combination of the “Iron Dome”, which also had a successful launching last week, with the “Arrow” system and the “Improved Arrow” will give Israel a well and an immediate protection from the strategic threats. The defense system is working intensively to provide a multi- layered defense system from missiles and rockets to insure the safety of Israel citizens.

The CEO of the Ministry of Defense, Mr. Pinchas Bochris, mentioned that the success of the launching is an important step in the process of developing a protection system from futuristic threats.

The CEO praised the people of the defense industries, the people of the Ministry of defense and the IDF for their cooperation, the creativity and the development abilities that brought the launching to success.

IAI President and CEO, Mr. Itzhak Nissan said at the occasion: “this is a substantial success and a challenging test facing the future threats we might face in our region. This is Israel Aerospace Industries, MLM Division, as the prime contractor, and additional IAI divisions that are taking part in the ARROW Project to the security of Israel”.

That the international defense industry is keen on getting a piece of the enormous Indian defense market is not surprising, considering the expenditure the Indian government is planning on defense equipment. The government plans to acquire a whole range of materiel from fighter aircraft, battle tanks, artillery howitzers, missiles of all ranges, naval vessels etc. Arms vendors all over the world are keenly interested in orders from India, as has been seen in the keenly watched race for the 126 Medium Multi Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) order.

But another measure of this eagerness to do business with India is also the innovative video marketing which an Israeli arms company, Rafael displayed on large screen televisions at their stall at Aero India 2009 recently.

The video is a Bollywood-style dance number featuring Israeli artists in full Bollywood costume singing in English about the potential for the Indo-Israeli defense trade relationship and dancing around mock-ups of Rafael’s products. It is significant that recent reports have indicated Israel to have overtaken Russia as India’s single-largest defense materiel supplier.

StratPost spoke to Assy Josephy the Director of Exhibitions for Rafael about how this video came about. “In Israel we have Jewish people from India, so we know about Bollywood and the song and dance numbers. Israelis are generally aware of Indian culture. This video is to help build familiarity between India and Israel and Rafael,” he says.

But this is not the first time Rafael has exhibited something of the sort. Josephy says Rafael has displayed such videos in many countries with various themes customized to the culture of the locations. “In Brazil we did a video of football. Football is very big there. In Paris the video had a theme that included Napoleon and the Renaissance. In Poland our video had themes of Chopin and Copernicus. In England it was about Shakespeare,” says Josephy.

India’s second largest military supplier Israel, has brought to Aero India 2009 their new Conformal Airborne Early Warning & Control (CAEW) aircraft. Using the Gulfstream 550 (G550)platform, the aircraft is capable of multiple roles including, Airborne Early Warning, Air Situation Picture Generation and Air Combat Command and Control.

Developed by ELTA, a subsidiary of Israeli Aircraft Industries, the CAEW is the third generation of Airborne Early Warning and Control (AEW&C) system built by the company since the 1980s. The platform carries an AESA radar & Identification Friend or Foe (IFF), Electronic Support Measures (ESM), an integrated Self Protection System (SPS) and a communications suite for Network Centric Operations (NCOs).

Israel plans to replace its older such Special Mission Aircraft with the G550 based CAEW. Israel already has two of these aircraft in operation.

So how is the CAEW different from the IL-76 platform based Phalcon system, of which three units are being purchased by India? Shalom Revivo, Joint Director at Israeli Aircraft Industries draws a whole list of distinctions. “The IL-76 is obviously a much larger aircraft; so many more systems could be placed in it. There is room to add additional technology. But the G550 is so tightly packed with systems that it would be difficult to add more to it. On the other hand, the G550 is more aerodynamic and so, more useful in a combat command situation,” he says, adding, “The G550 doesn’t have rotating radar. Instead the radar is all around the aircraft.”

Revivo also raises the issue of mid-air refuelling. “The IL-76 platform can be refuelled in the air. We’re still working on it with the G550. That’s the next stage of development,” says he, adding, “India’s huge size makes the IL-76 more appropriate, even though both have similar range.”

Another difference is the passenger capacity. While the G550 carries six personnel, the IL-76 can carry considerably more. Indian Air Force (IAF) veteran Air Marshal Harish Masand says, “This allows it to be used as a complete command in the air.” Revivo agrees, saying, “The IL-76 is a strategic aircraft,” adding, “Israel’s size is such that the G550 is optimum for its purposes.”

While there have been reports of a feeling in Israel that the of the anti-terror operations in Mumbai last week could have been handled better, the Israeli government has been careful not to criticize India’s handling of the situation.

The Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said in a statement, “At no stage were the issues of whether or not Israel should join the operation, or do things that were within the power of the Indian Government and its strong and trained military to do alone, on the agenda. I am very pleased at the cooperation and would like to take this opportunity to thank the Indian Government for seeing fit to update us throughout the events.”

We spoke to a former agent of the Israeli Mossad intelligence service, who was a security adviser to assassinated former Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin to get a better perspective.

Yossi Aplher, when asked if he could point out any errors made by Indian agencies or things that India could have done better, said, “I’m not comfortable with this conversation. You know, it’s very easy to sit here on the banks of the Mediterranean and criticize. I think it’s just presumptuous.”

On the other hand, he thinks Israel has a lot to learn from the unfortunate Indian experience last week. “This is the first time that Israeli targets have been attacked in the broader conflict against militant Islam in the India-Pakistan context. One immediate conclusion that Israel needs to draw is that its interests in the region are now targets for the terrorists and have to be better protected. Just like against the attacks of Black September in Europe in the 1970s. That’s at a tactical level. At a strategic level we have be aware that we may be dragged into India’s conflict with militant Islam.”

Rubbishing the critics of the Indian operation, Aplher said, “I would not presume to criticize Indian intelligence. The whole attack had the hallmarks of a well-trained operation, with an extraordinary number of objectives.”

Israel is no stranger to attacks from the sea and has devised defenses against them. But the former Israeli spy draws distinctions between the Israeli experience and the Indian scenario.

“We’ve suffered attacks from the coast too. Terrorists have targeted our cities by sea as well. But it is important to remember that it was always a single target. Mumbai is around two and a half times the size of Israel. It would just be presumptuous for us to criticize India for the way the operation was conducted. In the 70s and 80s we set up a sophisticated system of protecting the coastline. This involved the Navy and the Coast Guard but it also included a series of radars. You know, there is nothing to bet the concentration of Israeli women soldiers at the radars watching the screens for blips that could turn out to be threats.”

The former agent of Mossad draws a distinction here. “But, and this is a very big but, you have a huge coastline. When I look at the map of India I see a coastline that’s extremely difficult. We’re a small, compact country with much fewer people and a tiny coastline. The differences in scale are huge. That’s why we hesitate to think that there is something that Israel can teach India on this, simply because of the differences in scale. But if India thinks it can learn from us you are most welcome and we would like to express our total solidarity with the people of India in this.”