The first spurts of information on the results of the trials conducted by the Indian Air Force (IAF) for its 126 Medium Multi Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) tender are starting to trickle out.

A confident Bernhard Gerwart, Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of Military Air Systems at EADS Defence & Security, mingled with reporters in an informal chat with reporters in New Delhi on Tuesday and told them, “I believe we are compliant with all the requests that they have made. Yesterday, I had some meetings with representatives of the IAF and the MoD (Ministry of Defense) and, personally, I left with the impression that we had done well in the flight trials.”

But Herr Gerwert did offer a caveat, saying, “Mind you it’s just a feeling,” while pointing out the IAF had made no official statement to him.

At any rate he confirmed separately to StratPost, he would be sleeping easier after getting these vibes. While this is hardly definitive confirmation of the Eurofighter Typhoon having performed well in the trials from the perspective of the IAF, it is perhaps indicative of the feedback given by the IAF to representatives of the company.

And while Gerwert didn’t know if the IAF would come up with a short list or a ‘long list’, the issue of a down select remains open to question. It remains unclear whether any possible shortlist issued by the IAF would merely be an indication of preference or would actually result in the elimination of any of the contestants.

German Ambassador to India, Thomas Matussek, too, weighed in. “We have to see this in the geo-strategic context. Your security is our security,” he said. Did he think that if the MMRCA comes down to being a political decision, the four-European nations backing EADS would have the political capital to compete with the US? “The simple answer is ‘yes’. We’re easily on the same par as the United States,” he said.

The IAF is expected to submit its report on its evaluation of the six aircraft imminently, and industry watchers have been actively trying to get a sense of how it will play out. With the IAF enforcing a robust lockdown on any seepage of information so long as the report remains in their domain, defense journalists have been reduced to speculation on the play-out of the tender process.

Not surprisingly, reporters are straining their eyes trying to read between the lines of the statements issued by personalities such as Herr Gerwert and cryptic comments of IAF officers in private conversation, in the absence of any official indications.

There are some who argue that it would be in the interest of the IAF to indicate the results of the trials and its preferences, to make sure their views are not deviated from when the matter is laid before the Ministry of Defense. There are others who think this would be irrelevant, anticipating the IAF to indicate no clear preference one way or the other. Boeing’s F/A-18 Super Hornet, Lockheed Martin’s F-16, Saab’s Gripen IN, Dassault’s Rafale and the MiG-35 are the other aircraft competing in the tender.

But IAF officials admit to being eminently aware of the possibility of the conclusions of the report becoming public, once it is submitted to the ministry. And all concerned agree, some interesting times lie ahead, when that happens.

This blog has been modified from the originally published version, with a different quote attributed to Bernhard Gerwart.

The US Navy has compared the Boeing F/A-18 Super Hornet to fifth generation fighter aircraft, making a strong pitch for its selection in the 126 Medium Multi Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) contest of the Indian Air Force (IAF).

A chart illustrating Commander Goska's point.

The F-35 JSF is to complement US Navy Super Hornets.

Dr. Vivek Lall, Vice President and India Country Head, Boeing Defense, Space and Security, explains, “Many of the same technologies are common across all three of these next-generation fighters, and the Super Hornet is available today.”

According to Goska, the US Navy intends to keep the aircraft in service beyond 2035. Indeed, the US Navy is currently in the process of placing an order for 124 F/A-18 Super Hornets, at a price that a Reuters report says would come to around US $5.3 billion in a multi-year deal with each aircraft coming to around US $40 million, not including US $10 million for ‘government-furnished equipment’, less than the price of US $ 57 million listed on a US Navy website.

But even though the size of the buy is similar, with the US Navy’s 124 to the IAF MMRCA’s 126, Boeing officials are unable to indicate whether this figure could be taken as an indicator of the price tag for India in the event of the aircraft winning the Indian contest, even as they failed to confirm the prices indicated for the US Navy in the report.

In the event of the Super Hornet becoming the MMRCA, the ensuing contract would be an FMS (Foreign Military Sale) between India and the United States, which would also provide the IAF the benefits of economies of scale. “Under the FMS system, the US DoD (Department of Defense) is committed to procuring FMS defense articles and services under the same contractual provisions used for its own procurements. This system is designed to acquire the required quality items at the lowest feasible price from qualified sources and to provide for contract administration. FMS and DoD orders are often consolidated to obtain economy-of-scale buys and therefore lower unit prices,” says Lall.

“Under the FMS system, the foreign purchaser is charged a nominal fee for the contracting and administrative services provided by DoD. This fee is currently 3.8 per cent of the value of the contract and ensures that the DoD does not make a profit or take a loss on a Foreign Military Sale,” he adds.

If the actual sale price is lower than than the estimate made in the Letter of Acceptance, then the unspent money would be returned to India as the US government is not allowed to make a profit on an FMS deal.

Your correspondent visited the United States recently at the invitation of the Boeing Company.

The US Chief of Naval Operations (CNO) Admiral Gary Roughead is to arrive in New Delhi on Sunday on a five-day visit beginning the day after. He will be visiting India at the invitation of the Chief of Naval Staff Admiral Nirmal Verma and will meet the other two service chiefs, as well as the Defense Minister, AK Antony.

According to government sources, the agenda for discussions between Admiral Roughead and his team and the Indian side is expected to include issues like Communication Interoperability and Security Memorandum of Agreement (CISMOA) and discussions for a Logistics Support Agreement (LSA), which have been hanging fire since 2002, because of the absence of consensus in the armed forces, defense ministry and the political leadership on them.

The CISMOA is an agreement that envisages the laying down of protocols for interoperability and assuring the security of communications between the armed forces of the two countries. This agreement, if and when concluded, would be a major step towards enabling each country’s respective armed forces to carry out joint operations via agreed and secure communications protocols, and as such, is seen as a sensitive decision with far-reaching political and strategic implications. The US has also said this will ease the transfer of sophisticated communications technology to India.

The Indian Navy has ordered eight Boeing P-8I Long Range Maritime Reconnaissance Aircraft and is considering Boeing’s F/A-18 Super Hornet and Lockheed Martin’s F-35 aircraft in response to a Request for Information (RFI) for carrier-borne fighters.

In his testimony to the US House of Representatives in June 2008, Dr Walter K Anderson, Associate Director, South Asia Studies at the School of Advanced International Studies at John Hopkins University, said, “Indian interest in American multirole aircraft appears to be forcing the country to consider a CISMOA, which would in turn enhance the possibilities of even greater Indian purchase of US military equipment,” adding later, “In the Indian case, the issue is complicated further by a residue of substantial anti-America opinion in the bureaucracy, in academia and in the press, which while on the decline, often forces the Indian government to be cautious on something like a new security relationship with the United States, a caution that can delay or even stymie initiatives.”

Similarly, the LSA affects political sensitivities in India as well, as it would enable US forces to procure fuel and supplies from India. Since this could also possibly take place during US operations, of which the Indian political leadership may not entirely approve, it has, so far, remained unsure of acceding to the agreement.

Anderson, said in the same testimony, “Recognize that a security relationship with India – which New Delhi wants – will be different in that India will not permit itself to be militarily dependent on the US and will cooperate on security issues with the US only when there is a significant threat to Indian security interests. This Indian caution is reflected in its reluctance so far to sign a Logistics Support Agreement (LSA), allowing the refueling of aircraft and ships in each other’s ports, because of concerns in India that this would undermines Indian policy of not allowing foreign troops on its soil.”

This is not to say, however, that the armed forces of the two countries haven’t been cooperating at an increasing level. It is also pointed out that foreign troops on Indian soil are no longer a shocking taboo, going by the number of times India has hosted foreign militaries, especially from the US, for joint exercises. However, as with the Fuel Exchange Agreement (FEA) discussed below, an LSA could potentially lower operational costs substantially for the Indian armed forces.

The naval cooperation between the two countries has seen India take advantage of the FEA since 2005, which has led to a major cutting of the time and cost of operations, with Indian ships refueling from US tankers, especially recently, while on anti-piracy missions around the Gulf of Aden.

The two navies have also cooperated in the occasional exchange of information related to the Merchant Shipping Information System (MSIS), which details the movement of declared maritime traffic on the basis of Automated Identification Systems (AIS). StratPost understands there to be a move to regularize this exchange, especially in the context of traffic in the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden, Arabian Sea and the Indian Ocean; an issue which is also likely to come up for discussion during the US CNO’s visit.

Since 2006, Indian Naval aviators have also trained on the T-45 C Goshawk carrier-borne advanced jet trainers at places like the US Naval Air Station in Pensacola in the US.

But besides CISMOA and LSA, other issues remain. With increasing procurement of military equipment and defense materiel from the US, especially via the Foreign Military Sales (FMS) route, India would like its general interests, as promoted by the Defense Procurement Procedure (DPP), secured, in the face of the provisions under which FMS are conducted, which are generally skewed sharply in favor of US interests. While this issue was discussed between the two countries during the visit of US Secretary of Defense, Robert Gates to India last January, it is also likely to be taken up at the level of the navy chiefs.

This is the first visit of Admiral Roughead to India, since he took over as CNO in September, 2007. India’s armed forces usually interact with the United States Pacific Command (USPACOM) and service commands under USPACOM, via Executive Steering Groups (ESG), as its area of responsibility for interaction includes India. However, with this invitation to the US CNO, who commanded the US Pacific Fleet at one time, the Indian Navy has now moved for stepping up engagement with the US Pentagon, especially because major decisions and agreements, like on procurement, are hammered out in Washington DC, and not necessarily Honolulu.

Politics, it seems, is now being openly accepted as the deciding factor in defense deals.

After Eurofighter acknowledged something that is common knowledge last week, Sweden’s Gripen too has vented similarly, in the context of the Brazilian fighter aircraft tender.

Expactica quotes Saab chief executive, Aake Svensson, as telling Swedish news agency TT, “It is always a political decision, and that is why it is very difficult to predict the outcome.”

While the Brazilian Air Force is said to favor the Gripen, President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has indicated his preference for the French Dassault’s Rafale.

And so, just to show that political lightweight Sweden can play the game too, King Carl Gustaf is in Brazil to pitch for the Gripen. According to Defense News, Swedish Defense Minister Sten Tolgfors will be making the case to his Brazilian opposite number, Nelson Jobin, who was in India recently.

Boeing’s F/A-18 is also in the running, but is seen as a dark horse, also because of the politics. For one thing, it does not seem to offer the kind of transfer of technology that the other two contenders are offering, because of US laws, and secondly, Brazil hasn’t exactly been ecstatic about US military involvement in Columbia.

The Brazilian decision is said to be imminent now, as it was in September-October last year, and several times since.

Politics is also likely to start figuring in the Indian Medium Multi Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) tender process once trials are over in May. Amongst other things perhaps.

Dr. Vivek Lall, Vice President and Country Head of Boeing Integrated Defense Systems (IDS) in India, in a wide-ranging conversation with StratPost last week, discussed the scale of his company’s intended operations in India, the impact of the growing US-India ties on Boeing’s defense business in India, products on offer and the tender for 126 Medium Multi Role Combat Aircraft floated by the Indian Air Force (IAF).

Sitting in Boeing’s offices in a shiny new tower block in one of the commercial centers in New Delhi, Vivek Lall makes sure you know that the company has been operating in India for a while, declaring at the outset, “Boeing has been doing business with India for- has been in India for 60 years in terms of the airlines on the commercial airplane side. We’ve been buying and selling airplanes for a long time in the country.”

Boeing’s defense business unit IDS is his baby in India and Lall is free about admitting that part of its success has been due to growing US-India ties. “In the last 4 to 5 years, we have the other side of our business, which is the defense business, interact and engage with India. It’s clearly a result of the increasing bilateral relationship between the United States and India that opened up the defense market here for us,” adding, “We have been engaged in the last 4-5 years with the Indian Air Force, Indian Navy, Indian Army – well basically the services and MoD (Ministry of Defense).”

“The improving bilateral ties between the US and India are clearly very important. Things like End User Monitoring Agreements being put in place. A few years ago it was unthinkable that such an advance fighter like the F-18, which is going to be relevant for the next 30-40 years, with AESA technology – and not like some of the competition that’s coming to the end of its production life – this is a platform that’s going to be relevant in the US for the next 30-40 years – would be offered to India, with AESA technology and other things. It was unprecedented – if you look at how much progress has been made in that bilateral relationship in the last few years,” he elaborates.

Dr. Vivek Lall, Vice President and Country Head, Boeing Integrated Defense Systems.

“The US-India bilateral relationship has been improving and that has got us to where we are in 3-4 years, and we’ve had a large defense sale,” he says, referring to the P8I deal.

But he also submits that Boeing has advantages as a company that few others can match. “Boeing is a large company – we’re in space, we’re in homeland security – so we’re into various aspects and the breadth and depth of this company is huge. And I think that’s our strategic advantage. The fact that we are in the commercial domain, we are in the defense domain, we’re in the space domain. So sharing of technologies, people – that we feel is our USP, if you will.”

Boeing, besides winning a contract for the supply of eight P8I aircraft for the Indian Navy, has also bid to meet the heavy lift requirements of the Indian Air Force, pitching 15 Chinooks and C-17s as well as the attack helicopter requirement offering 22 Apaches, not to mention, racing for the MMRCA order.

The PhD in Aerospace Engineering is especially optimistic and confident about Boeing’s offer of the CH-47. “The Chinook is in a class by itself. It has three applications. One is the military application, one is humanitarian and the third is nation-building. That machine can get into places -,” he trails off. “It was used in the tsunami rescue operations, it was during the earthquake in Kashmir. The Chinook can go in places where others can’t,” he says.

“I don’t know if you can see those photographs of where they can just tip on one end and land and unload. That kind of maneuverability, robustness of platform, getting to the altitudes you need to get to, picking up the weight you need to pick at altitudes, I frankly don’t see any – the platform speaks for itself,” he says, as his enthusiasm also comes through for the other behemoth.

A United States Air Force C-17 Globemaster.

And he hopes that Boeing will emulate the success of a deal signed with the Indian government in the beginning of this year, which he says shows the extent of the willingness of the US to partner and share new technologies with India. “The P8I was the first sale here. It’s the largest US-India defense contract thus far. The United States Navy as well as the Indian Navy will be receiving similar state-of-the-art technology into their fleets. And so the level of trust, the level of interoperability, the level of sharing is unprecedented, as a result of this sale – we signed a contract on the first of this year,” adding, “The P8I sale is very symbolic in that it gets the state-of-the-art technology, it gets the latest equipment and the Indian Navy would be receiving its first aircraft in 2013, and all eight would have been delivered by 2015. So I think it certainly is of great significance to both countries that you have sale of that magnitude going through.”

The former NASA employee is also clear about the increasing scale of Boeing’s operations and ambitions in India. “There’s been a paradigm shift – we’re no longer just buying and selling. We are creating an industrial footprint here in India. Like the P8I deal I talked about – so over $ 600 million worth of offsets – we have started placing contracts for that. We have an R&T center – a Research and Technology center – in Bangalore that we recently launched.”

He even points out that HAL (Hindustan Aeronautics Limited) has started supplying parts for F-18s for the US. “We’re working with HAL – we signed a $ 1 billion dollar MoU with them in December 2007. And the first F-18 gunbay doors for the United States are being built by HAL. In fact the first set has already been shipped, very recently – a few months ago.”

Boeing, well aware of the offsets requirements in Indian defense tenders, has made extensive tie-ups with Indian companies for the IAF’s MMRCA tender. “On the (M)MRCA – the fighter competition – we have partnered with 38 companies. We’ve signed MoUs (Memorandums of Understanding) with 38 companies. Both public and private partnerships. So should we be successful we’ll be working with quite a large cross-section of companies.”

Boeing has also worked to convince its contractors in the US to tie-up with Indian vendors. “Now we do supplier conferences in Bangalore and we try to make sure that not only us, but our Tier 1 suppliers in the US – so 16 of the Tier 1 suppliers for the F-18 for example, in the US, with net revenues of $ 454 billion – you can imagine the consortium of Tier 1 companies. That group of 16 has partnered with these 38.”

Lall says Boeing doesn’t plan for its tie-ups to be restricted to Indian big business. “Because, it is not just Boeing – Boeing with Tata, Boeing with L&T, Boeing with HAL and all of that. We have combed the market in India, over the last two years. Not only the large companies – the Tatas and L&Ts and HALs and BELs – but also the Tier 2 – Tier 3 companies and we find a tremendous opportunity to partner. We find there are niche technologies – it’s an up-and-coming industry and clearly there’ll be a lot of sharing and learning.

He does, however, admit that getting to a point where all players are confident of the skill-sets and capabilities of partner companies could take time. “So it is a learning of skill-sets and so forth but clearly it’s an evolution over time. But we view India as a market where there’s tremendous resources on the ground in these companies and tremendous potential.”

All of this, according to Lall, is being seen as an opportunity for Boeing to grow its presence in the Indian market. “In fact, we’ve done $ 40 billion dollars worth of offsets around the world and we have never failed on our offset commitments. But we treat offsets as a catalyst for bigger things. We treat offsets as really spawning off an industry and we’ve done that around the world in different companies. So we really hope to keep doing the same kind of philosophy that we’ve followed around the world even in India. We’re very bullish on this market – we think there’s tremendous potential. And so we hope to continue partnering and looking for opportunities to partner with Indian industry.”

Moving on to discuss the big prize that the Indian government has to offer, Lall says, “The heart and soul of our effort is the fighter campaign – the (M)MRCA. We have successfully gone through two phases of the field trials. And we look forward to the third phase, which will be in February, in the United States.” So how did the F/A-18 do at Leh? “Leh is a very challenging field,” is all he’s willing to say.

But he denies the idea that because of the growing US-India relationship, Boeing might be getting some sort of a free pass in the contest. “I think the competition is incredible. You have six very capable platforms – five countries. And the requirements are clearly spelt out in the RFP. Whether it’s the 50 per cent offsets, or what-have-you – transfer of technology. It’s very specific in the RFP. So everyone has to comply with that, if you’re going to play in this game.”

Lall also brushes away the notion that the Indian defense procurement procedure is too lengthy, tedious or bureaucratic. “I think the Indian Air Force is doing a phenomenal job of very meticulously and thoroughly going through. Every country has its own ways of procuring aircraft. It’s a very important acquisition for India. It’s one that – if you get the aircraft in your fleet – which ever it is – it’s there for the next 30-40 years. Very likely the numbers will go up too. So it has to be a very thorough and thought out (process).”

He takes the example of the P8I order to bolster his argument. “And I’ll make reference to the P8I for example. That was a very thorough and deliberate process, again. A very transparent, a very thorough process of evaluation, of flight trials, of down select, of negotiations of understanding what’s on the platform – what’s needed on the platform. Again, very meticulous process. So some people ask me, did it take too long? Do you think it’s too bureaucratic? What do you think?”

“And I say no. Because if you compare this to international standards of procurement of any major platform, two and a half years from RFP to signing a contract is really well done.”

Dr. Lall thinks the Indian government too is seized of the importance of defense procurement and the need to build up a domestic defense industry. “I certainly know that the modernization drive is there. There is a real need for strategic platforms. And what we hope to bring, not just in terms of products and platforms is an industrial footprint in the country. So its a dual-pronged approach and we feel we want to bring the best of Boeing to India and the best of India to Boeing in this process of partnering together.”

Understandably, Lall is enthusiastic about Boeing’s starter in the race, the F/A-18. “The uniqueness of that platform – the fact that it has an operationally proven AESA radar, which is very important. And it’s a proven combat aircraft and that’s also very important to know. The design of the aircraft – it was designed for having the AESA integrated into it, which is different from adding a sensor later. It’s an integrated weapons system – the F/A-18 – compared to the competition.”

“It has been designed keeping everything in mind that exists on it. So it’s one integrated weapons system rather than an aircraft with a couple of engines, with a few missiles, with radar, which is typical and that’s what’s unique about it.”

But he also adds that F/A-18 also offers scope for choice to the customer. “There are a huge number of weapons configurations, so it is open architecture. It’s just the design of the whole system is such that it is – from day one – the inception, the conception of the platform is keeping everything in mind. It’s not like – what about – let’s add an AESA now. You have to integrate it with the electronic warfare suite etc. If you’ve got all the parameters, it doesn’t mean you can’t make it modular or open architecture. I think that’s very critical.”

“Because things like – you can swap out an engine in thirty minutes. Anywhere. It’s probably unheard of. That you don’t have to go in for scheduled maintenance for 9000 plus hours – flight hours. Unheard of. In fact a lot of people are alarmed that you don’t have to do anything for that long. So but these are operationally proven jets and so clearly the platform speaks volumes for itself.”

He also says the US plans to continue development of the aircraft to induct new technologies. “The United States will continue to insert technology in this platform – for the next 30-40 years. And it’s called Continuous Technology Insertion. So if India chooses to buy this now, ten years from now – it’s not like it’s ten years old – but it’ll have the latest technologies that are being inserted in the platform – which is very unique. Again.”

Interestingly, Lall, while talking about Boeing’s receipt of a Request For Information (RFI) from the Indian Navy for the aircraft, also points out the advantages to India if both the Indian Navy and the Indian Air Force opt for the same aircraft.

“We have received an RFI on F-18s from the Indian Navy. The United States Navy, by the way, is the fourth largest air force in the world. 75 per cent of those aircraft are land-based. It’s a very formidable platform that can be used off of aircraft carriers as well as land and I think should the Indian Navy pursue it, clearly a platform that’s proven on aircraft carriers,” he says, adding, “It would make tremendous sense from a joint forces standpoint to have that capability, because economies of scale will play in and operationally you’d be further ahead form a joint forces standpoint. That’s for the government to answer.”

Of the six aircraft competing in the MMRCA, only the French Rafale and the F/A-18 have both air force as well as naval variants. The MiG-29K/KUB, which some might uncertainly argue to be a naval relative of the MiG-35, is already being supplied to the Indian Navy.

But would the aircraft be compatible with Indian carriers like the Viraat and the much-delayed Gorshkov? “We have checked out with some modeling that that’s possible. We have done simulations that they can be used off of the Indian carriers,” says Lall, adding that test flights to prove the simulations would only be done as and when the need arises.

The flight trials for the 126 Medium Multi Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) currently underway, are not only a test for the selection of aircraft into the Indian Air Force (IAF), but also an opportunity for the six contenders to set records for a take-off from the highest altitude in the world, from the runway at Leh.

While Boeing’s F/A-18 was the first to be tried, the company finds itself unable to comment on any ‘milestones’ that might have been achieved.

But just to get a measure of the challenge, StratPost also spoke to Lockheed Martin. The company’s single-engined F-16 is currently undergoing flight trials for the MMRCA and is next in line to take-off from Leh.

Leh is considered one of the more challenging tests for the aircraft being tried, with them required to touch down, switch off and take off again from there. While Leh is by no means the coldest runway in the world, it is certainly the highest.

The idea is to gauge how well the aircraft perform at high altitudes (in this case, the highest), in cold temperatures and in conditions of thin air. While Lockheed Martin was not able to give details of the ongoing performance testing, it has provided StratPost with records of the experience the F-16 has had in these conditions.

The highest location from where the F-16 has taken off so far is Peterson Air Force Base in Colorado Springs, Colorado at an elevation of 6,035 feet. Colorado Springs is also the location of the United States Air Force Academy. Peterson Air Force Base, according to John Giese of Lockheed Martin, could also be safely considered the location with the thinnest density of air from where an F-16 has taken off. Leh is at an altitude of around 10,500 feet.

With restrictions being placed on information about the trials that could be given out by the participating companies, Giese had this to say. “Let me put it this way. We have been aware of this. We have great faith in the aircraft.” Is it going to be a big deal for Lockheed Martin? The vendor seems well aware of the bragging rights that come with a take-off from Leh. “Let’s just say that after this trial, Colorado Springs will no longer be the highest place from where an F-16 would have taken off,” he says, with an excited grin that can be sensed even over the phone.

The coldest location the F-16 has operated from is the Eielson Air Force Base in Alaska, where temperatures routinely drop to -30 degrees Celsius. The northernmost latitude from where the F-16 operates is Main Air Station at Bodo in Norway, above the Arctic Circle at 66.5 degrees North, where the average winter temperature is 0 degrees Celsius. Leh sees temperatures that fall well below – 20 in winter.

Lockheed Martin also submits in the context of density of air that, “The F-16 being offered to India is fully certified for flight operations up to 15.24 km (50,000 ft). At 15.24 kilometers high, the atmospheric pressure is only 110 millibars, (1.6 pounds per square inch), which is 1/9th of the atmospheric pressure at sea level.”

Interestingly, sources from the IAF point that the aircraft being tried out from Leh during the colder months will be the ones which will undergo the ultimate test. This situation is being considered less than ideal by some, as the test conditions can then fail to be equally stringent on all the contestants. But the extensive, year-long scheduling required for the trials leaves little option but to space out the testing and schedule each aircraft to land and take-off from Leh at different times of the year.

Dassault’s competitors are breathing a little easier after Wednesday’s announcement by the Brazilian Defense Ministry denying their contest for the purchase of 36 fighter aircraft to be decided and complete.

This news was passed around on mobile phones from hand to hand in a room full of Gripen officials, trying to will their hastily pulled-out reading glasses to provide some insight into the seemingly inscrutable workings of the Brazilians.

The news of the reprieve is greeted with honest bewilderment. “We don’t know what’s happening,” said one official from the Swedish vendor, a rival to Dassault’s Rafale of France for the Brazilian order. Indications are also being drawn from the absence of the Brazilian Air Force chief at the announcement of the deal by President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and French President Nicholas Sarkozy. While the technical evaluation process is admittedly complete, it is indicated that the Brazilian Air Force is yet to make up its mind about the order.

The military commerce relationship between Brazil and France, being seen by many to be virtually ensuring the selection of Rafale to be a foregone conclusion, is also being claimed by competitors to be one of the reasons why the decision is still up in the air. “They (Brazil) have past experience of working with the French. And maybe that is also why they’re not so quick about deciding on Rafale,” said the man from Sweden, who did not wish to be identified.

While political considerations are sure to have a role in any decision on a purchase of fighter aircraft by Brazil or India, Gripen’s strategy is not to overtly compete in this arena by minimizing the impact of politics on Gripen’s chances in either country. “Our objective is to ensure our proposal is of the highest standard, so that merit cannot be ignored.”

This is not the first time Gripen is grappling with political considerations. “Poland liked the Gripen. But they took a decision to go with an American aircraft. These things happen and we’re quite aware of it,” he says, indicating a high-level visit by a delegation of the Swedish government and business to India in November. “It is not that the political aspect is completely absent,” he submits.

Speaking separately, Edvard de la Motte Campaign Director of Gripen, says, “Sweden will not try to convince India or put political pressure on India. What Sweden can provide is the right product, the technology transfer and being a very reliable friend and I think India is big enough to buy from Sweden,” indicating India to be independent enough to withstand political pressure and decide on the basis of merit.

He doesn’t think the Brazilian decision is of significance for the Indian MMRCA. “I don’t think the Brazilian selection will really effect India. I think India and the Indian Air Force have defined their requirements and will be looking for the best platform, the best deal for India,” he says.

But de la Motte does admit to similarities between the requirements for a fighter aircraft from the two countries. “I think India and Brazil are looking for the same kind of aircraft. That doesn’t necessarily say that they’re the same requirement, because they aren’t. The similarities are probably strongest in terms of the technology transfer and the indigenous capability. But the Brazilians go about it a different way than India. In Brazil, for instance, the fact that we are a development program is a very, very strong point. Based on the Brazilian experience, the only way to do technology transfer is to be part of the development program. That’s the only way to really understand the source code, to really understand how to integrate new weapons. And that doesn’t seem to be the case yet in India,” he says, repeating, “Whatever Brazil selects, Gripen or anybody else, I don’t think that’s going to be a very important factor for India. The Indian requirements are on the table and they will make up their mind on what India needs, more than looking around at what others have selected.”

The Brazil selection process is however considered simpler than India’s MMRCA trials, because of the down select, according to the unnamed Gripen official quoted above. “In India one out of six aircraft being test flown will be selected,” he says wistfully. “It becomes difficult to predict and expensive for the vendors to bring their aircraft for test flights. Although I don’t blame the Indian Air Force for wanting to fly as many aircraft as possible,” he smiles. He also thinks that with delays in India, the IAF might have to buy aircraft off the shelf and not be able to go in for joint development and perhaps may even end up with obsolete technology.

Saab’s Gripen and Boeing’s F/A-18 Super Hornet are rivals to Dassault’s Rafale for the Brazilian order, all three of whom are also competing with Lockheed Martin’s F-16, the Russian MiG-35 and EADS’ Eurofighter Typhoon.

Gripen’s objective is to position itself as a replacement for French aircraft like the Mirage and Jaguar in service with countries like India and Ecuador and ‘older US platforms’ like the F-5, F-16 and F/A-18.

French aerospace firm Dassault has won the order to supply Brazil with 36 Rafale aircraft. This was confirmed to StratPost today by sources at the company, after an announcement made during the visit of French President Nicholas Sarkozy to Brazil for their Independence Day celebrations about the initiation of negotiations for the sale.

While there were some reports that the Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva had signaled that the negotiations do not rule out the purchase of another aircraft, it was independently confirmed to StratPost by Dassault that the French firm will indeed be getting the order. “No, no, it is confirmed. We won on the basis of the technical evaluation,” said a source at Dassault. He however clarified that final price negotiations are still to take place and refused to speculate on the value of the final order.

The other contenders in the race were Boeing’s F/A-18 Super Hornet and the Swedish Saab’s Gripen. Earlier reports had indicated President da Silva to be favoring the Rafale because of the provision for complete transfer of technology without conditions. In comparison, Gripen, the cheapest aircraft, was reported to be unable to offer complete and unconditional transfer of technology because of the incorporation of US-made components. Also, the Super Hornet’s life cycle cost was reported to be more than the Rafale’s, even though the latter is the most expensive aircraft of the three.

While the Brazilian contest also included the F-16, the Eurofighter and the Sukhoi-30 as well, these three aircraft were weeded out in the first round. Interestingly, except for the Sukhoi, five of the six contenders for the Brazilian order are also part of the race for the 126 Medium Multi Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) order of the Indian Air Force (IAF). “The Brazilians had a different structure for their contest, with initial evaluations and elimination of three aircraft in the first round and then technical evaluation in the second round. We came up on top in the technical evaluation in the second round,” said the source, also pointing out, “In India, all the six aircraft are being tried out in the same round. Single-engined being compared with double-engined. But the parameters of the technical evaluation (in the Brazilian contest and the Indian MMRCA race) are quite similar.”

While the structure of the Brazilian contest was different from the way the MMRCA contest is structured, there seems to be little question that Rafale will now come into the MMRCA trials with the confident afterglow of a winner. “Of course, it is definitely a positive sign,” said the source, adding, “The Americans had been pointing out how the Rafale hasn’t been getting export orders, but we have won in Brazil on the basis of our technical evaluation. This has happened earlier with the Mirage as well.”

France is also looking to export the Rafale to Libya and the United Arab Emirates.

Incidentally, at the moment the IAF is conducting trials for Lockheed Martin’s F-16. The MMRCA race consists of Boeing’s F/A-18 Super Hornet, Saab’s Gripen, Dassault’s Rafale, Lockheed Martin’s F-16, EADS’ Eurofighter Typhoon and the Russian MiG-35.

Brazil has already decided to buy five French Scorpene submarines for the protection of their offshore oil wells, one of which will be nuclear powered, as well as 50 military helicopters. While reports say the French will also be buying 10-12 Brazilian military transport aircraft in return, Dassault refused to comment on whether the Rafale might have had an edge because of the extensive military commerce between Brazil and France, pleading ignorance of the details of the other defense contracts between the two countries.

StratPost has also been informed that the transfer of technology will be ‘partial’ and will suit ‘whatever they (the Brazilians) have asked for’. Also, while there may be assembly of parts in Brazil and perhaps even some manufacture, it has also been indicated that ‘it would not make economic sense to set up an entire assembly line in Brazil for only 36 aircraft’. “While Brazil has a sound aviation industry, it would not be economical. However, if there are other deals happening, whereby France and Brazil decide to jointly manufacture and export the aircraft, it might be possible. But quite often assembly of knocked-down kits is done locally as the aircraft may not be permitted to fly in,” said the source.

Lockheed Martin has informed StratPost that their starter for the MMRCA race, the F-16, is going into Phase II of the trials from Monday.

So far, the aircraft was in the first phase of trials which lasted a week. Phase I consisted of training on the aircraft for Indian Air Force (IAF) test pilots. The training comprised academic exercises, cockpit familiarization as well ‘a bit of flying’, as one insider put it.

From Monday, the aircraft will begin to be put through its paces by the IAF, an exercise that is expected to be exacting. The aircraft is to be ‘almost crash-tested’ over the skies of Bangalore, the Jaisalmer desert environment in Rajasthan, and the cold, and thin heights of Leh.

The F-16 is the second aircraft to be tried by the IAF for the over $ 10 billion order for 126 combat aircraft. The first was Boeing’s F/A-18 Super Hornet.