The first spurts of information on the results of the trials conducted by the Indian Air Force (IAF) for its 126 Medium Multi Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) tender are starting to trickle out.

A confident Bernhard Gerwart, Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of Military Air Systems at EADS Defence & Security, mingled with reporters in an informal chat with reporters in New Delhi on Tuesday and told them, “I believe we are compliant with all the requests that they have made. Yesterday, I had some meetings with representatives of the IAF and the MoD (Ministry of Defense) and, personally, I left with the impression that we had done well in the flight trials.”

But Herr Gerwert did offer a caveat, saying, “Mind you it’s just a feeling,” while pointing out the IAF had made no official statement to him.

At any rate he confirmed separately to StratPost, he would be sleeping easier after getting these vibes. While this is hardly definitive confirmation of the Eurofighter Typhoon having performed well in the trials from the perspective of the IAF, it is perhaps indicative of the feedback given by the IAF to representatives of the company.

And while Gerwert didn’t know if the IAF would come up with a short list or a ‘long list’, the issue of a down select remains open to question. It remains unclear whether any possible shortlist issued by the IAF would merely be an indication of preference or would actually result in the elimination of any of the contestants.

German Ambassador to India, Thomas Matussek, too, weighed in. “We have to see this in the geo-strategic context. Your security is our security,” he said. Did he think that if the MMRCA comes down to being a political decision, the four-European nations backing EADS would have the political capital to compete with the US? “The simple answer is ‘yes’. We’re easily on the same par as the United States,” he said.

The IAF is expected to submit its report on its evaluation of the six aircraft imminently, and industry watchers have been actively trying to get a sense of how it will play out. With the IAF enforcing a robust lockdown on any seepage of information so long as the report remains in their domain, defense journalists have been reduced to speculation on the play-out of the tender process.

Not surprisingly, reporters are straining their eyes trying to read between the lines of the statements issued by personalities such as Herr Gerwert and cryptic comments of IAF officers in private conversation, in the absence of any official indications.

There are some who argue that it would be in the interest of the IAF to indicate the results of the trials and its preferences, to make sure their views are not deviated from when the matter is laid before the Ministry of Defense. There are others who think this would be irrelevant, anticipating the IAF to indicate no clear preference one way or the other. Boeing’s F/A-18 Super Hornet, Lockheed Martin’s F-16, Saab’s Gripen IN, Dassault’s Rafale and the MiG-35 are the other aircraft competing in the tender.

But IAF officials admit to being eminently aware of the possibility of the conclusions of the report becoming public, once it is submitted to the ministry. And all concerned agree, some interesting times lie ahead, when that happens.

This blog has been modified from the originally published version, with a different quote attributed to Bernhard Gerwart.

Days before the expiry of the commercial bids submitted by the six vendors vying to supply the Indian Air Force (IAF) with 126 Medium Multi Role Aircraft (MMRCA), the Indian Ministry of Defense has asked them to extend the validity of their existing commercial proposals or submit fresh commercial proposals altogether, allowing them to change the prices and associated financial terms and conditions for the respective aircraft offered to India. The renewed or revised commercial proposals are required to be valid for one year.

The original commercial proposals, submitted on April 28, 2008, were valid for 24 months and are due to lapse on Wednesday. “The ministry has asked the vendors to extend the validity of their commercial bids. They also have the option to change their commercial bids. They can increase or decrease the value of their bids,” said one source, who also added, “This has been done in accordance with Section 55(a) of the Defense Procurement Procedure (DPP).”

Interestingly, if a vendor chooses to submit fresh commercial proposals under Section 55(a), there is no way to determine whether the vendors have increased or decreased the values of their commercial proposals, since their original commercial proposals will be returned to them unopened.

Section 55(a), Defense Procurement Procedure [Return of Commercial Offers]: Situations would arise when the validity of the commercial offers submitted by vendors expire before acceptance of staff evaluation report. In such cases, vendors would be given an option to either extend the validity of the commercial offer for a specified period (the period to be decided in consultation with SHQ) or to submit fresh commercial proposals. For cases where vendors want to submit fresh commercial proposal, their old proposals would be returned unopened to them by the Acquisition Managers. However, for the old cases where the RFP (Request For Proposal) is retracted after submission of the bids or a vendor is rejected at TEC (Technical Evaluation Committee)/Trial/Staff Evaluation Stage or a vendor unilaterally withdraws from the acquisition process, their commercial offers would be returned unopened to them by the Technical Managers.

US aviation and defense firm, Boeing, pitching its F/A-18 Super Hornet is likely to extend the validity of its existing commercial bid. Boeing said in a statement to StratPost, “The US Navy and Boeing have been requested by the MoD (Ministry of Defense) to extend the validity of the MMRCA proposal and are working to provide a compliant response in support of the deadline set by the MoD.”

Sweden’s Saab, offering the Gripen, also told StratPost it would be ‘extending its offer to the Indian Air Force’, while Lockheed Martin, with its F-16IN, indicated a revision of its commercial bid, saying, “The F-16IN team plans to update our commercial bid to ensure the best possible value to India on MMRCA.”

EADS, with its Eurofighter Typhoon in the fray, while saying it would ‘respond in accordance with the requirements of the Ministry of Defense’, did not clarify as to whether it would extend the validity of its commercial bid or submit an entirely fresh commercial proposal. Dassault, offering the Rafale to the IAF, too was not clear as to whether it would stick with its existing commercial proposal or revise its value.

The Russian Aircraft Corporation, offering the MiG-35, has not so far responded to queries posed by StratPost in this regard.

With the trials of the six aircraft in the MMRCA contest almost complete, industry sources say this is being seen as an opportunity to recalibrate the offer prices of the respective aircraft in accordance with the perceived performance in the trials, in an effort to present a more attractive deal.

The flight trials for the 126 Medium Multi Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) currently underway, are not only a test for the selection of aircraft into the Indian Air Force (IAF), but also an opportunity for the six contenders to set records for a take-off from the highest altitude in the world, from the runway at Leh.

While Boeing’s F/A-18 was the first to be tried, the company finds itself unable to comment on any ‘milestones’ that might have been achieved.

But just to get a measure of the challenge, StratPost also spoke to Lockheed Martin. The company’s single-engined F-16 is currently undergoing flight trials for the MMRCA and is next in line to take-off from Leh.

Leh is considered one of the more challenging tests for the aircraft being tried, with them required to touch down, switch off and take off again from there. While Leh is by no means the coldest runway in the world, it is certainly the highest.

The idea is to gauge how well the aircraft perform at high altitudes (in this case, the highest), in cold temperatures and in conditions of thin air. While Lockheed Martin was not able to give details of the ongoing performance testing, it has provided StratPost with records of the experience the F-16 has had in these conditions.

The highest location from where the F-16 has taken off so far is Peterson Air Force Base in Colorado Springs, Colorado at an elevation of 6,035 feet. Colorado Springs is also the location of the United States Air Force Academy. Peterson Air Force Base, according to John Giese of Lockheed Martin, could also be safely considered the location with the thinnest density of air from where an F-16 has taken off. Leh is at an altitude of around 10,500 feet.

With restrictions being placed on information about the trials that could be given out by the participating companies, Giese had this to say. “Let me put it this way. We have been aware of this. We have great faith in the aircraft.” Is it going to be a big deal for Lockheed Martin? The vendor seems well aware of the bragging rights that come with a take-off from Leh. “Let’s just say that after this trial, Colorado Springs will no longer be the highest place from where an F-16 would have taken off,” he says, with an excited grin that can be sensed even over the phone.

The coldest location the F-16 has operated from is the Eielson Air Force Base in Alaska, where temperatures routinely drop to -30 degrees Celsius. The northernmost latitude from where the F-16 operates is Main Air Station at Bodo in Norway, above the Arctic Circle at 66.5 degrees North, where the average winter temperature is 0 degrees Celsius. Leh sees temperatures that fall well below – 20 in winter.

Lockheed Martin also submits in the context of density of air that, “The F-16 being offered to India is fully certified for flight operations up to 15.24 km (50,000 ft). At 15.24 kilometers high, the atmospheric pressure is only 110 millibars, (1.6 pounds per square inch), which is 1/9th of the atmospheric pressure at sea level.”

Interestingly, sources from the IAF point that the aircraft being tried out from Leh during the colder months will be the ones which will undergo the ultimate test. This situation is being considered less than ideal by some, as the test conditions can then fail to be equally stringent on all the contestants. But the extensive, year-long scheduling required for the trials leaves little option but to space out the testing and schedule each aircraft to land and take-off from Leh at different times of the year.

French aerospace firm Dassault has won the order to supply Brazil with 36 Rafale aircraft. This was confirmed to StratPost today by sources at the company, after an announcement made during the visit of French President Nicholas Sarkozy to Brazil for their Independence Day celebrations about the initiation of negotiations for the sale.

While there were some reports that the Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva had signaled that the negotiations do not rule out the purchase of another aircraft, it was independently confirmed to StratPost by Dassault that the French firm will indeed be getting the order. “No, no, it is confirmed. We won on the basis of the technical evaluation,” said a source at Dassault. He however clarified that final price negotiations are still to take place and refused to speculate on the value of the final order.

The other contenders in the race were Boeing’s F/A-18 Super Hornet and the Swedish Saab’s Gripen. Earlier reports had indicated President da Silva to be favoring the Rafale because of the provision for complete transfer of technology without conditions. In comparison, Gripen, the cheapest aircraft, was reported to be unable to offer complete and unconditional transfer of technology because of the incorporation of US-made components. Also, the Super Hornet’s life cycle cost was reported to be more than the Rafale’s, even though the latter is the most expensive aircraft of the three.

While the Brazilian contest also included the F-16, the Eurofighter and the Sukhoi-30 as well, these three aircraft were weeded out in the first round. Interestingly, except for the Sukhoi, five of the six contenders for the Brazilian order are also part of the race for the 126 Medium Multi Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) order of the Indian Air Force (IAF). “The Brazilians had a different structure for their contest, with initial evaluations and elimination of three aircraft in the first round and then technical evaluation in the second round. We came up on top in the technical evaluation in the second round,” said the source, also pointing out, “In India, all the six aircraft are being tried out in the same round. Single-engined being compared with double-engined. But the parameters of the technical evaluation (in the Brazilian contest and the Indian MMRCA race) are quite similar.”

While the structure of the Brazilian contest was different from the way the MMRCA contest is structured, there seems to be little question that Rafale will now come into the MMRCA trials with the confident afterglow of a winner. “Of course, it is definitely a positive sign,” said the source, adding, “The Americans had been pointing out how the Rafale hasn’t been getting export orders, but we have won in Brazil on the basis of our technical evaluation. This has happened earlier with the Mirage as well.”

France is also looking to export the Rafale to Libya and the United Arab Emirates.

Incidentally, at the moment the IAF is conducting trials for Lockheed Martin’s F-16. The MMRCA race consists of Boeing’s F/A-18 Super Hornet, Saab’s Gripen, Dassault’s Rafale, Lockheed Martin’s F-16, EADS’ Eurofighter Typhoon and the Russian MiG-35.

Brazil has already decided to buy five French Scorpene submarines for the protection of their offshore oil wells, one of which will be nuclear powered, as well as 50 military helicopters. While reports say the French will also be buying 10-12 Brazilian military transport aircraft in return, Dassault refused to comment on whether the Rafale might have had an edge because of the extensive military commerce between Brazil and France, pleading ignorance of the details of the other defense contracts between the two countries.

StratPost has also been informed that the transfer of technology will be ‘partial’ and will suit ‘whatever they (the Brazilians) have asked for’. Also, while there may be assembly of parts in Brazil and perhaps even some manufacture, it has also been indicated that ‘it would not make economic sense to set up an entire assembly line in Brazil for only 36 aircraft’. “While Brazil has a sound aviation industry, it would not be economical. However, if there are other deals happening, whereby France and Brazil decide to jointly manufacture and export the aircraft, it might be possible. But quite often assembly of knocked-down kits is done locally as the aircraft may not be permitted to fly in,” said the source.

Lockheed Martin has informed StratPost that their starter for the MMRCA race, the F-16, is going into Phase II of the trials from Monday.

So far, the aircraft was in the first phase of trials which lasted a week. Phase I consisted of training on the aircraft for Indian Air Force (IAF) test pilots. The training comprised academic exercises, cockpit familiarization as well ‘a bit of flying’, as one insider put it.

From Monday, the aircraft will begin to be put through its paces by the IAF, an exercise that is expected to be exacting. The aircraft is to be ‘almost crash-tested’ over the skies of Bangalore, the Jaisalmer desert environment in Rajasthan, and the cold, and thin heights of Leh.

The F-16 is the second aircraft to be tried by the IAF for the over $ 10 billion order for 126 combat aircraft. The first was Boeing’s F/A-18 Super Hornet.

US defense contractor Lockheed Martin is seemingly unfazed by the spate of cuts in defense spending hitting western countries. The recession has forced countries like the US and the UK to slash planned spending on military equipment like the defense budgets of countries like the US and the UK and with the US capping its F-22 Raptor fleet at 187 the UK cutting back on the number of Eurofighters it was planning to purchase.

French company Dassault’s Rafale is also still only in service with the French armed forces, while the Swedish Gripen has been turned down by Norway in favor of the F-35 Lightening II Joint Strike Fighter. Defense vendors are officially scrambling for orders.

While affirming that the contest to decide the winner of the Medium Multi Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) contest of the Indian Air Force (IAF) is important for the company, Orville Prins, Vice President for Business Development, indicated some of the other contenders in the race to be fighting to survive.

“The MMRCA is important to us in terms of the size of the order and our relationship with India,” he said, adding that the RFP (Request for Proposal) in question provides for an option for to buy an additional 63 aircraft.

Prins however denied that cuts in defense spending had made Lockheed Martin more eager to bag the order, albeit hinting the case may be different for other competitors in the race.

“I have read that others (competitors) are going out of business if they don’t get the Indian or Brazilian order,” he said, referring to the MMRCA as well as the Brazilian FX-2 program, which is a tender for 36 combat aircraft , in which three of the MMRCA contenders, Boeing’s F/A-18 Super Hornet, the French Dassault’s Rafale and the Swedish Saab’s Gripen are in the fray.

Lockheed Martin has configured its F-16 fighter to enable it to meet the air-to-air refueling requirements laid down for the Medium Multi Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) contest of the Indian Air Force (IAF). The defense contractor has enabled the aircraft with the ‘Probe and Drogue’ system, a demonstrator of which was displayed at the Paris Air Show recently.

According to John Giese of Lockheed Martin the aircraft requires conformal tanks to enable air-to-air refueling. Other air forces that operate the F-16 too, have taken notice. “Israel was interested. If the Israeli Air Force (F-16 aircraft) were to have conformal tanks, they could be enabled too,” he said.

Lockheed Martin especially engineered an F-16 for the purpose of meeting the Indian requirements, enabling the aircraft to use the ‘Probe and Drogue’ system for refueling with a retractable refueling boom attached to its conformal tanks. “We’ve developed this capability over the past few years,” said Giese.

Conformal tanks, unlike drop tanks which can be discarded after use, are additional fuel tanks that are fitted into the architecture of an aircraft to optimize its aerodynamic shape.

The capability for air-to-air refueling is considered strategically significant as it extends the range and endurance of the aircraft being refueled. Probe and Drogue allows tankers to refuel multiple aircraft at the same time and is also used by the IAF’s Il-78 tankers.

The Swedish fighter aircraft Gripen has suffered a setback in the six-vendor race to bag the Medium Multi Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) order for the Indian Air Force (IAF).

The Jerusalem Post has reported that under US pressure the Israeli Defense Ministry has ordered the Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) to withdraw from a project to jointly develop the Gripen IN with Gripen’s parent company Saab. The Gripen IN is the aircraft Saab has been proposing to offer the Indian Air Force.

The Jerusalem Post reports, ‘The Defense Ministry ordered IAI to back out of the deal after the Pentagon expressed concern that American technology, used by Israel, would be integrated into the Gripen offered to the Indians.’

The report quotes an unnamed Israeli official, who said, “The stated concern was that western technology in Israeli hands would make its way to the Indians.”

But significantly, Boeing and Lockheed Martin are both also in the race to bag the around US $ 12 billion order for 126 fighter aircraft, pitching the F/A-18 Super Hornet and the F-16IN respectively.

The report says that according to Israeli officials, ‘it was more likely that the Americans were concerned that if IAI competed for the deal with Saab it would force the American companies to lower their prices’.

The report also points out that this is not the first time an Israeli company has been ‘forced out of a deal’ where US companies might also be competing, referring to previous incident where Israel withdrew from competition to provide Turkey with a new tank.

The other competitors for the MMRCA order are the European EADS’ Eurofighter Typhoon, the French Dassault’s Rafale and the Russian MiG-35.

Israeli firms have been remarkably successful in marketing military hardware to India in recent years and Gripen would have vastly benefited by having an Israeli partner in the MMRCA race.

Air Chief Marshal Fali Homi Major and Air Marshal PV Naik

“The Technical Evaluation has been completed for all six. We expect (the report of ) the Technical Evaluation Committee (of the Ministry of Defense) to be complete very soon. The Field Trials will begin two-three months after that,” he said, indicating they may begin around October or November, while clarifying, “It is difficult to say for sure as to the schedule.”

He also said the IAF had also worked out the modalities of the Flight Trials and parameters upon which the aircraft would be tried. “The IAF has been earmarking test teams and patters in which we are going to conduct the test. There will be representatives from the Ministry of Defense as well as the DRDO (Defense Research Development Organization) who will also be involved,” he said.

The six contenders for the contract are Lockheed Martin’s F-16IN Super Viper, Boeing’s F/A-18 Super Hornet, Russia’s MiG-35, Saab’s GripenIN, EADS’ Eurofighter Typhoon and French Dassault’s Rafale, which had been earlier reported to have crashed from the race.

StratPost can confirm the scratching of Dassault’s horse in the Medium Multi Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) race, the Rafale.

Sources in the Ministry of Defense informed StratPost the aircraft was rejected for not being up to par as far as the technical requirements were concerned. “One issue was about power. The evaluating team was not impressed with the Thrust/Weight ratio,” one source told StratPost.

The Thrust/Weight ratio decide the maneuverability of the aircraft. The Rafale is reputed to have a Thrust/Weight ratio of 1.13. Interestingly, other contenders like the Lockheed Martin’s F-16 and Saab’s Gripen are reputed to have lower ratios of 1.095 and 0.94 respectively, while Boeing’s F/A-18E/F Super Hornet is said to have a ratio of 0.93. The Russian MiG-35 is said to have a ratio of 1.1 and the Eurofighter Typhoon 1.18.

In the case of Rafale, StratPost was informed the ratio was found to be unsatisfactory.

The Rafale was also said to have unspecified problems with its payload deployment system itself.

Other sources told StratPost, the Indian Air Force (IAF) was not impressed with the serviceability of the aircraft. At Exercise Red Flag in the United States last year, in which both the IAF as well as the French Air Force Rafales participated, the Rafales were observed to suffer considerable down time, which, according to some reports, was due to the lack of available spares.

Added to all this is the perception of the Rafale as an extremely expensive aircraft in comparison to its competitors, all five of whom are left in the race for the single largest defense contract in the world, for 126 fighter aircraft, said to be worth $ 12 billion.

But sources in the Ministry of defense have also expressed frustration at the lack of an official communique disqualifying Dassault’s Rafale from the race. “I don’t understand why they can’t issue an official note, if they have indeed made up their minds. Why do these games have to be played during election time?” asked one source.